Canada’s Conservative Defence Reorientation: Signals, Risks and Strategic Opportunities

Observer, Conservative Party of Canada Convention — Calgary, Alberta

Last weekend, I attended the Conservative Party of Canada national convention in Calgary to evaluate what a future Conservative government in Ottawa—led by Pierre Poilievre—could mean for Canada’s defence posture, North American security integration, and the trajectory of the country’s defence industrial base.

What emerged was not a fully formed doctrine, but a series of clear strategic signals—suggesting a potential reorientation away from years of procurement inertia and toward a more operationally credible defence posture. Whether these signals translate into policy will depend on execution, fiscal discipline, and political durability. Still, for allies and industry partners, the convention offered credible indicators of change.

‍A Federal Election on the Horizon?

‍Notably, the political context surrounding these signals was impossible to ignore. Throughout the convention, there was quiet but persistent speculation that a federal election could be called in late spring or early summer. This sense of proximity to power lent a heightened seriousness to the policy messaging on display.

Adding to this momentum, Poilievre secured an 87.4 percent confidence vote to remain party leader—exceeding expectations and signaling a consolidation of internal unity that strengthens his mandate to define the party’s national security and defence platform.

‍From Process to Capability—In Principle

‍Throughout the convention hall, large display boards outlined a modernization agenda centered on speed, deterrence, and interoperability. The stated priorities included:

• New submarines
• Tactical helicopters
• Satellite ground stations
• Over-the-horizon radar

These capabilities form the backbone of a modern maritime and aerospace domain awareness architecture—critical to both Canadian sovereignty and NORAD’s evolving mission set.Equally noteworthy was the emphasis on unmanned systems and force multiplication:

“We will quickly add an arsenal of drones that will cover more territory at lower cost and with less risk to Canadian life."

The language mirrors U.S. and NATO modernization trends, emphasizing persistent ISR, autonomy, and sensor integration. The challenge, however, will lie not in ambition but in procurement execution and integration.

‍Arctic Sovereignty as a Strategic Imperative

‍The clearest doctrinal shift concerned the Arctic.

The convention presentation called for:

• New military bases in Iqaluit, Churchill, and Inuvik
• Four icebreakers rather than two

This framing suggests a transition from episodic presence to sustained strategic posture. For U.S. planners, this aligns directly with NORAD modernization, Arctic sensor networks, and northern early-warning requirements.

If implemented, it would mark a meaningful evolution in Canada’s contribution to continental security, though it will require long-term capital planning and coordination with provincial and Indigenous partners.

‍Institutional Readiness and Political Signaling

‍Poilievre’s remarks emphasized performance and accountability:

‍
“Expand recruitment and performance by hiring and promoting based on merit, not political correctness.”

Beyond the rhetoric, the underlying theme was institutional readiness—rebuilding a force structure capable of supporting allied operations in contested environments. The extent to which this cultural shift can be operationalized remains an open question, but the signal itself reflects a growing recognition that capability and credibility are inseparable.

‍Implications for the Defence Industry

‍For Canadian, U.S. European, South Korean, Japanese and other allied defence firms, these signals suggest a reopening of Canada’s modernization pipeline, albeit one still subject to political and fiscal constraints.

A Conservative government would likely seek to:

• Shorten procurement timelines
• Deepen cross-border industrial cooperation
• Align Canadian requirements with NORAD force architecture
• Reaffirm NATO capability commitments

If realized, this could generate opportunities across ISR, space systems, unmanned platforms, maritime security, Arctic logistics, and cyber defence—while also strengthening North American supply-chain resilience.

‍A Window, Not a Guarantee

‍The Calgary convention did not offer a finished strategy. It offered direction.

If translated into policy, this agenda could represent the most consequential shift in Canadian defence posture since the Cold War—reintegrating Canada more fully into the operational framework of North American and transatlantic security.

Yet ambition alone will not suffice. The true measure of success will be execution, continuity, and alliance integration.

For now, the signals are promising—but the outcome remains to be written.