Canada’s Defence Reckoning: Why the Age of Strategic Complacency Is Over

It is rare that a single policy announcement signals a tectonic shift in a nation’s identity. But when Prime Minister Mark Carney declared in July 2025 that Canada would double its defence budget to $150 billion by 2035, it felt like a long-overdue reckoning had finally arrived. For the first time in decades, defence and national security were not being treated as second-order concerns or niche policy fields. They had moved to the centre of Canada’s national conversation.

But the significance of this moment goes far beyond budget numbers. The real story is that Canada, a country long buffered by geography, privilege, and alliance shelter, is beginning to confront an uncomfortable truth: we can no longer afford to outsource our security or assume our alliances will save us from strategic irrelevance.

The End of the Peace Dividend

‍For much of the post–Cold War period, Canada benefited disproportionately from what is often called the “peace dividend”—the idea that liberal democracies could enjoy prosperity, social stability, and global influence without sustaining serious military power. We were one of the wealthiest countries in the world, deeply embedded in the Western alliance system, and physically shielded by oceans and the United States.

But that era is over. The global security environment has changed more dramatically in the past five years than in the previous three decades. Authoritarian assertiveness, supply chain vulnerabilities, cyber disruptions, and accelerating climate insecurity have shattered the illusion that Canada’s distance from conflict is the same as immunity from it.

The world is now multipolar, unstable, and technologically fluid. And in this world, nations that do not invest in their security—who cannot signal both capability and commitment—will find themselves ignored, bypassed, or worse.

A Strategic Awakening—or Just a Budget?

‍Carney’s announcement was bold. But ambition is not strategy, and budgets are not plans. The hard work now begins.

Canada’s defence architecture remains fragmented. We lack a coherent national security strategy. Our foreign policy is reactive. Our industrial strategy is embryonic. And our procurement system—famously slow and risk-averse—is still governed by a mindset from a different era.

To succeed, we need more than dollars. We need an integrated strategic framework. We need to be honest about what we are trying to defend, what we are willing to build, and where we can genuinely lead.

What Should We Be Building?

‍Canada’s defence industry is neither underdeveloped nor unsophisticated. In fact, some of our most innovative firms are already working with allies around the world. What they lack is a reliable partner at home.

For too long, the Canadian government has treated domestic defence companies as interchangeable with foreign suppliers—adhering to a procurement model that values procedural fairness over strategic advantage. But defence is not a free market. It is a managed economy, where a small number of firms—and a small number of governments—make decisions with generational consequences.

If we are serious, we must identify the capabilities we must build here—sovereign cyber tools, Arctic sensors, autonomous systems, and secure communications—and create a policy environment that supports them. That means long-term contracts, patient capital, export support, and above all, predictable demand.

It also means rethinking what Canada wants to be known for. We should be world-class in shipbuilding, aerospace, armoured vehicles, and Arctic security. These are not just legacy sectors. They are the connective tissue of a credible defence policy in the 21st century.

The Clock Is Ticking

‍The biggest constraint is not money. It’s time. The Canadian defence establishment has historically operated under the luxury of long timelines and limited ambition. But today, that model is collapsing. The security environment is deteriorating faster than our institutions can adapt.

To put it bluntly: the pace of global change is 21st century; our procurement system is still operating on 20th-century timelines. As I often tell clients, it takes 2.5 times longer to get things done in government than in the private sector. If we don’t act now—decisively and strategically—we will miss the window.

Restoring Credibility with Allies

‍There’s another dimension to this moment. Canada’s reputation as a reliable defence partner has taken a hit. Delays in fighter jet purchases, political indecision, and chronic underinvestment have not gone unnoticed in Washington, Brussels, or London.

Carney’s announcement is a chance to rebuild trust. But our allies will be watching not what we say, but what we deliver. Can we align policy with procurement? Will we invest in real interoperability? Are we finally ready to treat our role in NORAD and NATO as serious, sustained commitments—not talking points?

These questions matter not just for symbolism, but for substance. If Canada wants to be in the room where decisions are made—whether on missile defence, AI-enabled warfare, or Arctic deterrence—it must show up as a capable, coherent partner.

A National Project, If We Choose It

‍Canada’s rearmament effort could become more than a defence initiative. It could be a national project—a catalyst for industrial renewal, technological innovation, and international credibility. It could lift not only our GDP but our global stature.

But only if we treat it with the seriousness it demands. That means aligning politics with policy, bureaucracy with mission, and industry with purpose.

This is not about militarism or a pivot to hard power. It is about strategic maturity. About understanding that sovereignty, prosperity, and peace are not guaranteed by geography or good intentions. They are earned—through foresight, investment, and commitment.

We are no longer on the sidelines of global security. The world has called our bluff. It is time to step up—not just with budgets, but with belief.

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‍Goran Samuel Pesic serves as President and CEO of the Samuel Group of Companies. He is the Chief Lobbyist at Samuel Associates in Ottawa and Samuel Group in Washington, D.C. and also holds the position of Chairman of the Policy Insights Forum (PIF). He is a trusted strategic advisor to industry leaders, governments, and international organizations on matters related to defence, national security, and industrial policy.