Defence Insider: Lead or Lag: Canada's Choice in the Age of Autonomy

In comparison to the annual CANSEC defence & security exhibition in Ottawa, DEFSEC in Halifax is relatively small. Not withstanding its diminutive size however, the show is an excellent harbinger of the mood of industry, emerging trends, and areas of concern. Walking the floor and talking to industry experts last week was both inspiring and frustrating. Inspiring to see and learn of the innovation, commitment and passion being applied to the potential opportunities emerging from the government’s commitment to increased defence spending; frustrating because there does not yet appear to be a clear vision of what the priorities - and supporting mechanisms - are for new investments in Canadian defence industry.

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Of the many emerging technologies, there has been arguably disproportionate excitement of late related to the developments in autonomous systems. Many pundits have gone as far to suggest that the technology represents a complete paradigm shift in modern warfare. In particular, since the beginning of the second conflict in Ukraine, some “experts” have gone as far as to suggest that traditional platforms - fighter jets, armoured vehicles, ships, even submarines - are obsolete and the future of warfare will be drones fighting drones. I have been skeptical; not of the significance of the emerging technologies, but of the immediacy of the potential demise of traditional capabilities.

An Opportunity for Canada

With that said, there is a rapidly growing potential opportunity for Canada to become a leader in this emerging technology. Our perceived reluctance to embrace the technology likely has several root causes: some practical, others ideological. The reality is however that autonomous systems are a rapidly proliferating staple of the modern world - both civil and military. We need to embrace the technology and its potential implications, both good and bad. I suspect that there were similar debates over the advent of the steam engine and the automobile; both seen as mechanical perversions at the time that eventually became commonplace and essential ingredients of progress.

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Coupled with ongoing developments and investments in Al, Canada could become a leading manufacturer of autonomous systems. Not only do we have all the ingredients necessary to make this a viable national endeavour, but we also have the potential to be leaders in the ethical and legislative dimensions of the employment of this emerging technology. When you unpack what would be required to successfully build an autonomous systems sector, the essential ingredients include: the platform which could be made from basic materials or complex composites; the control system and associated software; onboard sensors; and potentially weapons and or other payloads. Every one of these elements is already, or could easily be developed, in Canada.

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From a war-fighting perspective the ongoing battle for the survival of Ukraine provides many practical lessons we can learn about the rapidity with which technology and tactics evolve. Both sides in the conflict continue to learn and adapt to the behaviour and technology of their respective adversaries. Much of this adaptation and innovation has been related to the implementation of autonomous systems. Although the effectiveness of these systems on their own have been frequently analyzed and celebrated, one of the emerging trends is the potential for autonomous and traditional systems to operate as cooperative or complimentary combat platforms. This is a natural evolution of the technology where autonomous systems are not a replacement but a supplement to traditional capabilities. Further, we are seeing autonomous systems now performing rudimentary “high risk” activities such as battlefield deliveries and sustainment. This is a practical example of the natural evolution of complimentary capabilities.

Why Canada Should Embrace the Opportunity

Beyond the potential commercial advantages of building a domestic industrial capacity, there are two compelling reasons why Canada should embrace this opportunity. First, we could - and arguably should – be leveraging our ongoing support to Ukraine to help them build what they need here in Canada. Like our industrial contributions during WW2, we can easily manufacture necessary systems far away from the front lines, and this would be much better for everyone than paying others to do what we can unquestionably do here at home. Second, we could develop a domestic capacity to essentially multiply the combat effectiveness of our relatively small force. The creative and ambitious implementation of a national autonomous systems strategy could create the equivalent of significant military mass with minimal capital and would also act as a substitute or complement for our diminutive forces. A CAF of 100,000 people could be effectively equivalent to much larger force if we are smart about this.

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As our political leaders are all scrambling to determine the best way forward for Canada in the face of the economic and security challenges we are facing, there is no shortage of crazy ideas out there. In light of both the increasing threats from our potential adversaries and our latent domestic capacity, pivoting part of the economy toward the production of autonomous systems maybe isn’t that crazy. Are we courageous enough to try something so potentially unorthodox - I hope so, because it would be a missed opportunity if we don’t.