PM Carney’s Majority Moment: Why Political Certainty Matters for Canada’s Defence Economy

In Ottawa, majority governments are often described in the language of power. But for Canada’s defence industry, a majority is less about dominance and more about predictability. It is the difference between aspiration and execution, between policy signalling and capital deployment. At a time when Canada is under renewed pressure to align with allied expectations within NATO, and with Prime Minister Mark Carney now leading the federal government, the emergence of a stable governing mandate carries implications that extend far beyond Parliament Hill and into boardrooms, procurement pipelines, and industrial strategy.

The Prime Minister’s stated direction, viewed alongside NATO’s 2035 framework, is not simply about increasing spending. It is about repositioning Canada as a serious allied contributor in an era where defence is no longer confined to ships, aircraft, and armoured vehicles alone. NATO’s 5 percent commitment, agreed at the Hague Summit, is structured around at least 3.5 percent for core defence requirements and up to 1.5 percent for broader defence and security related spending, including critical infrastructure, resilience, and innovation. That framework matters because it widens the aperture for industrial participation and creates a far larger space for Canadian firms, including non traditional entrants, to contribute to national and allied capability.

This is where a majority government matters.

From Policy Volatility to Industrial Confidence

Minority governments, by their nature, produce caution. They encourage incrementalism, delay large scale procurement decisions, and often result in stop start funding cycles. For the defence sector, this creates a fundamental challenge. Companies do not invest in production lines, workforce expansion, research and development, or security compliance on the basis of unstable policy signals.

A majority government changes that equation. It provides a multi year planning horizon. It allows the Department of National Defence and central agencies to move from risk aversion to structured execution. Most importantly, it signals to both domestic and international firms that Canada is serious about becoming a more reliable participant in allied defence industrial efforts. For global partners operating within the NATO ecosystem, credibility is currency. A clear trajectory toward higher spending levels, backed by a stable government and aligned with alliance expectations, begins to restore that credibility. It invites partnership, expands the basis for co production, and creates better conditions for integration into allied supply chains.

The 5 Percent Horizon: Ambition Meets Reality

The move toward 5 percent of GDP by 2035 is, by any measure, ambitious. But the deeper significance lies in what that target implies. It means that defence policy can no longer be treated as a niche file managed narrowly by procurement officials and the armed forces. It becomes an industrial, financial, and technological project of national consequence.

The next three years will therefore be decisive. This is the period in which political intent must be translated into procurement pathways, industrial incentives, regulatory clarity, and institutional discipline. It is the period during which Ottawa must decide which capabilities it wants to prioritize, which sectors it wants to cultivate, and how it intends to connect Canadian industry to continental and transatlantic defence production. If that work is done well, the 2035 target becomes a credible national project. If it is delayed, fragmented, or over politicized, it risks becoming yet another defence aspiration that outruns administrative execution. NATO’s own framework now expects annual national plans that show a credible incremental path to the target. That increases the pressure on governments, including Canada’s, to convert rhetoric into a sequenced plan.

The Strategic Entry Point for Industry

For companies outside the traditional defence sector, this moment represents both an opening and a test. The opening is obvious: Canada’s repositioning creates new space for firms with technologies that can serve military, security, or dual use applications. The test is whether those firms understand that the defence market is structurally different from the commercial one.

Many firms in advanced manufacturing, cyber, data, autonomous systems, energy resilience, communications, and space adjacent technologies already possess capabilities that are highly relevant to modern defence needs. But relevance is not the same thing as readiness. Defence markets are governed by procurement procedures, industrial policies, security thresholds, export controls, long sales cycles, and institutional gatekeepers that do not exist in most commercial sectors. A strong product is rarely enough. Companies must be able to position that product within government priorities and align it to real procurement or capability gaps.

That is why the next three years matter so much. Early movers will be the firms that invest in understanding the market now, build the right relationships, shape how their technologies are perceived, and identify where their solutions fit within Canada’s defence and security priorities. Late entrants will face a more crowded field, more mature incumbents, and a government system that will increasingly favour firms already known to departments, primes, and allied partners.

The Role of Strategic Intermediaries in Ottawa: The Samuel Group

This is where the Samuel Group of Companies becomes relevant in a practical, not merely promotional, sense. In a market shaped as much by institutional process as by innovation itself, advisory firms that can interpret government priorities, procurement structures, and industrial realities provide a genuine strategic function.

The Samuel Group of Companies offers full service support across the entire market entry and growth cycle for organizations seeking to diversify into the defence sector. That support can begin at the earliest stage, with market analysis for firms assessing whether entry into defence is commercially and strategically sensible. It can then extend through positioning, government relations, stakeholder mapping, procurement strategy, and the identification of specific opportunities.

Importantly, that support does not end simply because an opportunity becomes difficult or unfavourable. In a sector where outcomes are often shaped by process, timing, and administrative interpretation, sophisticated support may also be required when companies face setbacks, need to reassess a procurement result, or must consider recourse through mechanisms such as the Canadian International Trade Tribunal process and beyond.

Within that broader platform, Samuel Associates Inc. and Samuel Strategies Inc. play distinct but highly complementary roles.

Samuel Associates is the business to government facing entity of the platform. It is trusted by federal departments, agencies, political leadership, and Parliament, and operates at the intersection of defence, national security, and public policy. Its role is to help companies navigate the institutional architecture of government: engaging decision makers, aligning with departmental priorities, positioning before procurement authorities, and managing government relations in a disciplined and credible manner. It also supports companies in navigating regulatory requirements that are central to defence participation, including export control regimes and permitting processes, which are often a prerequisite for engaging in international defence trade and allied programs.

Samuel Strategies, by contrast, is the analytical and market intelligence engine of the platform. It supports companies in making real strategic decisions about entering the defence sector, grounded in evidence rather than assumption. Its work includes detailed market assessments, competitive mapping, demand analysis, and the identification of viable entry points for commercial and dual use technologies. Beyond analysis, Samuel Strategies supports clients in specialized areas tailored to their needs, including engagement with key Canadian Crown corporations such as Canadian Commercial Corporation, Export Development Canada, and Business Development Bank of Canada, among others. It also supports companies in navigating complex procurement outcomes, including situations where bids are contested and require escalation or review through the Canadian International Trade Tribunal.

Together, these two entities provide a full spectrum capability. Samuel Strategies helps determine whether and how a company should enter the defence market. Samuel Associates ensures that once that decision is made, the company can operate effectively within the government and procurement ecosystem. For firms transitioning from commercial markets into defence and dual use applications, this integration of analytical insight and institutional execution is often the difference between entry and failure. The Samuel Group calls this business approach the SamuelAdvantage.

The SamuelAdvantage is the ability to help companies decide, enter and succeed in the defence market by combining:

• Clear entry market strategy (Samuel Strategies)
• Trusted government access, professional engagement and credible execution (Samuel Associates)

In simple terms, it means guiding a company from understanding the opportunity all the way through to winning and navigating real defence business.

A Narrow Window with Long Consequences

The convergence of a majority Liberal government, the leadership of Prime Minister Mark Carney, NATO’s 2035 spending framework, and a more volatile global security environment creates a narrow but consequential window for Canada. The issue is no longer whether defence will matter more to Canada’s economy and industrial policy. It will. The real question is who will be ready when Ottawa begins to convert strategic necessity into funded priorities and actual procurement.

Over the next three years, decisions made in Ottawa will determine whether Canada emerges as a meaningful contributor to allied defence industrial capacity or remains a peripheral player with impressive language and inconsistent follow through. For industry, the question is equally stark. Engage now, with seriousness and preparation, or risk arriving after the market has already begun to consolidate around faster, better advised, and more strategically positioned competitors.

Political stability does not guarantee success. But it creates the conditions in which success becomes possible.

In defence, as in policy, timing is everything.